Hello all,

   Results of a series of experiments examining our forecast skill on 3
drifters released by Jim on 22 May follow.  

CONCLUSION: the update in hydrography (from the Albatross survey which
straddled the release date of the drifters -- 20-24 May) was key in
capturing a robust west-southwestward drift present in the real drifter
trajectories from the "get-go".  Without the updated hydrography the model
drifters "lumbered" near the release site, headed somewhat south and fell
hopelessly behind throughout the run.

1) The drifters were released on either side of the 60m isobath, within 
the tidal front.
   
   Drifter 087, mid-depth drogue at 13m, was released at 1000h EDT
    in 56m water depth.
   
   Drifter 234, mid-depth drogue at 8m, was released at 1600h EDT
    in 63m water depth.
   
   Drifter 200, mid-depth drogue at 33m, was released at 1615h EDT
    also in 63m water depth.
   

2) The summary of 5 runs follows.  

- The winds and QFLUX were always a combination of forecast and latest 
  available observed values from the Edwin Link - these were the same 
  throughout the May24FC* runs.  
  
- The "dx" values are separation distance between observed and predicted
drifter positions in Kms, and "N cycles" is the number of drifter tidal
cycles available for comparison.



       dx(087) dx(200) dx(234)   N cycles      Comments
	    ------- ------- -------   --------    -----------------
May23FC  8.6     11.0     5.2        2        Hydrography includes
                                              LINK's CTD/bongo data;
                              	   			 ekmin=0.002.  ADCP
through
	
en324_0523.m3d
____________________________________________________________________________
                                              
May24FC  7.8     9.8      3.5        2        As above, with updates 
                                              for forecast/hindcast and
                           						 the
cbc file; latest Link
 
data also included, as well
	
as en324_0524.m3d ADCP data.
____________________________________________________________________________

May24FC  11.8     16.9     5.6        5       As above, just longer
                                              drifter data available for
 
comparison.
____________________________________________________________________________
						 
May24FC2  12.8    21.5     12.2       5       As above, but removed the
                                              latest en324_0524.m3d ADCP 
 
data to see effects of only 
 
updated winds
____________________________________________________________________________
						 
May24FC3  11.9    16.0      6.4       5       en324_0523.m3d ADCP included
                                              again, but ekmin=0.0002
                                              (note that we used 2e-4 since 
 
2e-5 was unstable)   
____________________________________________________________________________

May24FC4  6.8     7.9       2.2       5       As above, but updated 
                                              hydrography with ongoing
Albatross broadscale survey
(AL9904 20-24 May).
____________________________________________________________________________
		

The Albatross data incorporated in the last run of the above table (and
emailed to the Endeavor earlier today) included 27 CTD stations along the
southern flank.  These data captured a warm and salty feature (greater than
34ppt on the bank and as high as 36 off the bank) along the Bank's southern
limit.  We are still dissecting the new hydrography and will report back as
soon as we understand it better.	

Since completing these runs, the Albatross has sent us more CTD data (25 May
10pm) and we will be processing these later today and e-mailed ASAP.


Cisco and Jim.

P.S. Not sure if we can compete with the Endeavor team's grab on
phraseology,
but we'll work on it.